The Future of of the Mind

The human mind is a wonderfully complex entity, one that we as a species are slowly starting to understand:

• We know that the way we feel, act, and think is based on neurons within our brain.
• We know that different areas of the brain have different functions – e.g. the front of the brain is responsible for critical thinking, personality, and decision making, just to name a few.
• We know that our brain changes based on experiences, a phenomenon known as plasticity. For example, when a guitarist practices different strutting motions, the connections within his brain that enable these motions are strengthened. This change in the guitarist’s brain allows him to move his/her fingers more quickly and efficiently, often without directly thinking about their next movement.
• (Note: When I refer to the Mind I’m referring to our abilities to make decisions based on an inner moral code, to think about abstract concepts, or to experience emotions such as pain, pleasure, or love… etc.).

Despite having these breakthroughs in neuroscience, we still have an elementary understanding of how the mind really works. However, the future of neuroscience is promising. The Human Connectome Project and the Blue Brain Project are two of the many next generation collaborative efforts to understand the brain and mind. New technologies, such as fMRI (which enables us to see what parts of the brain are active during different tasks), enable us to study the brain in ways that were previously unimaginable. So with this added bit of optimism, what does the future of brain science look like? What is the future of the mind?

Experts in philosophy, neuroscience, and computer science have different predictions about the future of the mind. However, one particular prediction captures my attention as the most interesting. In his new book “How to Create a Mind”, Ray Kurzweil, chief engineer at Google and famous futurist, predicts that in the future our minds will be integrated with artificially intelligent computers. In other words, just as we use cars speed up our travel compared to walking, in the future our minds will be integrated with computers to think faster, learn more, and decide more accurately.

Kurzweil’s Book: How to Create a Mind

 

Now I know on first glance what Kurzweil proposes seems ludicrous on many levels – the brain is way too complex to understand, let alone manipulate, right? However, Kurzweil does a great job to deductively show that what he proposes is not only possible, but its likely to occur.

To begin with, we should keep in mind that historical predictions about the future often fall short of what really happens. For example, in 1947 Howard Aiken – one of the pioneers of IBM’s first computer – was quoted of saying “Only six digital computers would be required to satisfy the entire computing needs of the United States”. As an early pioneer and computer expert, Aiken’s prediction was perhaps the most informed of his day. However, today we know that his prediction was not only incorrect, but it astoundingly fell short. And that seems to be the trend with predictions about the future: the predictions underestimate what will happen in the future. Why does this happen? Because technology expands exponentially, while our brains think of time (and thus predict) linearly. The difference between linearity and exponentiality is drastic; if you take 30 steps linearly, you move 30 units… but if you take 30 steps exponentially you move more than a billion units. An example of technology expanding exponentially is the computer. In the early 1900s, computers that could only perform simple calculations took up entire buildings. In the mid 1900s, more sophisticated computers occupied entire rooms. The late 1900s ushered in an era of personal computers that fit on a desk (hence a desktop computer). And within the past decade, we now have smartphones that fit within our pockets. Not only has the size exponentially decreased (a factor of 1.5 million), but the speed has also dramatically increased. Kurzweil and most modern futurists take into account the exponentially growing nature of technology. That is why his prediction may seem wacky at first, even though it is backed by hard evidence.

50 years of computer history. Going from the size of a building to the size of a postcard.

 

So who exactly is this Kurzweil guy, and why should we take him seriously? Kurzweil is an expert computer scientist who specializes in artificial intelligence and neuroscience. He believes that the brain is the most complex computational device that we possess today, and therefore he spent his early career ‘reverse engineering’ the human brain. Kurzweil used what he learned about the brain, and implemented it into the field of artificial intelligence. In other words, he programmed computers to run in a way that mimics how the human brain functions. With this approach, in 1982 he was the first scientist to develop voice recognition software, which Siri now uses. In his early career, Kurzweil created the first flatbed scanner and music synthesizers. Moreover, he published several books in the 1990s, which made what were then called outrageous predictions; BUT 78% of his predictions were correct.

Ray Kurzweil

 

Okay so maybe Kurzweil is smart, and his prediction may have some merit, but why would we ever want to integrate our brains with a computer?

The short and simple answer is because our brains are limited. Each human brain is composed of roughly 100 billions neurons, and no known biological mechanism exists to increase the number of neurons. With a limited number of neurons, we may not be able to keep up in our new age of informational and technological change. Just think about how many new studies are coming out, how many new books are published, how many new devices are being created; there is no way we can keep all of these things in our mind at once, to formulate a comprehensive understanding of a topic. Furthermore, each new study or book builds on previous knowledge. And as science progresses, so does the complexity of scientific explanation. In order to keep up in this new age, we must enhance our brain in some way, as Kurzweil suggests. Although the human brain is a wonderful thing, it is not infinite – improvements can be made to enhance our brain.

 

So how does Kurzweil exactly propose this integration between brain and computer? He suggests that in the near future we will have computers that are the size of blood cells. Although this may seem improbably, experts and Moore’s Law predict this to occur by 2020. Moore’s Law states that the number of transistors in a dense space doubles every two years, enabling the size of computer hardware to exponentially decrease. Once we have computers that are the size of cells, we can implant them into the brain. These minicomputers will be capable of reading and manipulating signals from neurons. The minicomputers will wirelessly connect to an AI cloud (similar to icloud). The AI cloud will be composed of large external computers that will be made up of a neural equivalent of several quadrillion neurons. This external cloud brain would work in synch with our actual brain, to amplify our intelligence – the two would seamlessly integrate. The communication between our brains and this computer would allow us to think in more abstract ways that our brain is currently incapable of. In addition to increasing the number of neurons, external computers can also increase the connectivity between neurons. Neurons in biological brains are connected to other neurons that are physically close to them. With an implanted minicomputer, every human brain neuron would be able to connect to every other neuron, through the AI cloud. Again, this increased interconnectivity would allow higher order abstract thinking that is currently not possible.

Moore’s Law: predicts that computing doubles every two years. Its been spot on since the 1970s. It predicts that computers will have the computing power of humans by 2020.

 

Okay so that is the theoretical construct of a brain-computer interface, but what would this integration provide practically?

• Forget your anatomy right before your surgery rotation? An external cloud brain would have enhanced programming and unlimited storage to immediately recall any fact or memory (kinda like limitless)
• Researchers working on cancer treatments could use the AI cloud to effortlessly transmit all their knowledge from their brain to the brain of other researchers. Today, the culmination of a persons entire life is gathered in the books they wrote, the papers they published, and the technologies they created. In the future, the entire intelligence of scientific genius could be downloaded to anyone’s external brain.
• Remember all those books on your bookshelf that you haven’t gotten to? An external cloud brain would allow you to download the content of the book into your intelligence. In fact, it would allow you to access and understand all the published information on socioeconomics (for example), empowering you to find solution to end poverty.

All of these scenarios sound great, but Kurzweil predicts that brain-computer integration will ultimately lead our exploration and expansion into the universe. Technology will continue to exponentially evolve, and eventually our intelligence will expand by factors of trillions. We will begin to expand our computers, machines, and spaceships throughout the universe. Since our minds are connected to these machines, we will be able to remotely control our spaceships. Kurzweil finishes his book by stating that “infusing [technology] with our human intelligence in its non-biological form, is our destiny.”

 

Now I’m not saying I’m an advocate of this prediction, or that I even believe that it is possible. There are several ethical, moral, scientific hurdles that we must surpass to be able integrate ourselves with computers. Moreover, the survival of our species is in question, with the dramatic use of natural resources, change in climate, and threat of nuclear extinction looming; our species may not survive to see such a future. However, it is quite fascinating to think of a future where intelligence and opportunity will be infinite. Dreaming of a future like this is overly optimistic, but without optimism, the world would never grow. It’s a wonderful time in history to be alive, one that’s past the dark ages, yet before the age of infinite possibilities; so cherish the world, explore it, and make a difference for the better.